Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1FCS opponent · display only
South Dakota State
0–1 · unrated
18–34Final
Northwestern
4–1 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
SpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.NU −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.3 · NU covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
FCS opponent · display onlyFCS opponents are modeled by tier. No pick, no probability, never graded.
Quarterbacksthis game
Chase Mason
23/48 · 285 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.02
- Comp %
- 47.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Aidan Chiles14/24 · 273 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2967th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
No 2026 stats for South Dakota State (FCS), so the matchup and team-stat tables are left off.
Season so far
South Dakota State0–1
Lat Northwestern18–34missed +14
at Northwestern18–34missed +14Northwestern4–1 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is