Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4FCS opponent · display only
North Carolina Central
0–1 · unrated
9–42Final
East Carolina
3–2 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
SpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.ECU −37.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −31 · North Carolina Central covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
FCS opponent · display onlyFCS opponents are modeled by tier. No pick, no probability, never graded.
Quarterbacksthis game
Nelson Layne
9/13 · 65 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.83
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Relieved in Q2 by 5230073
Emory Williams25/36 · 341 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1654th pct
- Comp %
- 69.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
No 2026 stats for North Carolina Central (FCS), so the matchup and team-stat tables are left off.
Season so far
North Carolina Central0–1
Lat East Carolina9–42covered +37.5
at East Carolina9–42covered +37.5East Carolina3–2 · 85th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is