East Carolina

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at UAB · Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

3–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season

Rating

−2.1

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

7.1▲ 0.2 vs preseason

CFP odds

<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5

at AlabamaALAECU +21.8ECU +28.5L 10–4820ECU · L

Sat, Sep 129/12

App StateAPPECU −9.8ECU −9.0L 24–2759ECU · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

at Old DominionODUECU −1.1ECU +2.5W 20–1749ECU · W

Sat, Sep 269/26North Carolina CentralNorth Carolina CentralECU −31.0ECU −37.5W 42–997

Sat, Oct 1010/10

RiceRICEECU −7.5ECU −9.5W 28–1259RICE · L

Thu, Oct 1510/15

at UABUABECU −7.4ECU −4.5ECU −4.5Pass

Thu, Oct 2210/22

at MemphisMEMECU +6.3—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

TempleTEMECU −4.9—wk 9

Fri, Nov 611/6

South FloridaUSFECU −2.2—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at CharlotteCLTECU −21.1—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

at ArmyARMYECU +3.7—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

Florida AtlanticFAUECU −3.1—wk 13

Model on ECU games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 0–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

7.13–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.9

Bowl (6+)67%

9+ wins3%

11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game19%

Win conference9%

Make the CFP<1%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.00103rd

Success rate39.8%106th

Pass EPA−0.04113th

Rush EPA+0.0390th

Explosive rate11.9%92nd

Quality-drive rate46.4%96th

Points per quality drive3.0122nd

Defense

EPA allowed−0.1415th

Success allowed32.0%4th

Pass EPA allowed−0.218th

Rush EPA allowed−0.0926th

Explosive allowed11.5%69th

Havoc rate17.1%2nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−1.9113th

Turnover margin−179th · exp. +3.0

Field position margin+0.9 yd63rd

Hidden points / game−1.9gave up

Luck, wins−0.23.2 earned

One-score record1–1flipped 3–2

Rush rate over expected−1.9%71st

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−2.178th

Schedule played−1.186th

Schedule remaining−6.098th

Full schedule−4.292nd

Pregame expected wins2.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 78th · −2.1Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

East Carolinaoff −0.00 103rddef −0.14 allowed · 15th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.