Week 1 report · Thu, Sep 3 · 2026 Week 1FCS opponent · display only
UAlbany
0–1 · unrated
17–21Final
Buffalo
3–3 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
SpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.BUF −18.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25.4 · UAlbany covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
FCS opponent · display onlyFCS opponents are modeled by tier. No pick, no probability, never graded.
Quarterbacksthis game
Aidan Semo
3/5 · 13 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.37
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Elijah Holmes26/47 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
No 2026 stats for UAlbany (FCS), so the matchup and team-stat tables are left off.
Season so far
UAlbany0–1
Lat Buffalo17–21covered +18.5
at Buffalo17–21covered +18.5Buffalo3–3 · 81st-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10QB change mid-game
at Florida International20–33missed +10QB change mid-gameL
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 3, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is