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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs MASS · Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Buffalo

3–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−9.5
Rank
109
Résumé
101
Projected wins
6.4▲ 1.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3UAlbanyUAlbanyBUF −25.4BUF −18.5W 21–1754
Sat, Sep 129/12at Florida InternationalFIUBUF +12.9BUF +10.5L 20–3341FIU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Penn StatePSUBUF +38.1BUF +39.5L 13–5514BUF · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Robert MorrisRobert MorrisBUF −26.1BUF −28.0W 31–2849
Sat, Oct 310/3Western MichiganWMUBUF +15.3BUF +13.5L 17–2042WMU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ToledoTOLBUF +23.4BUF +19.5W 23–840TOL · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17MassachusettsMASSBUF −4.5BUF −6.5MASS +6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Bowling GreenBGSUBUF −3.7—wk 8
Tue, Nov 311/3at Miami (OH)M-OHBUF +7.3—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at Ball StateBALLBUF −4.0—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18Central MichiganCMUBUF −5.2—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at AkronAKRBUF −4.0—wk 13

Model on BUF games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.43–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)20%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07128th
Success rate34.8%130th
Pass EPA−0.14124th
Rush EPA0.00100th
Explosive rate8.3%134th
Quality-drive rate38.4%127th
Points per quality drive3.794th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0682nd
Success allowed37.3%33rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1195th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0156th
Explosive allowed11.8%73rd
Havoc rate5.6%135th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.219th
Turnover margin−7129th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−1.0 yd88th
Hidden points / game+1.1banked
Luck, wins+0.32.7 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected+3.3%36th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.5109th
Schedule played−0.782nd
Schedule remaining−13.3138th
Full schedule−8.3131st
Pregame expected wins2.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 109th · −9.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBUFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Buffalooff −0.07 128thdef +0.06 allowed · 82nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.