Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1FCS opponent · display only
Murray State
0–2 · unrated
14–38Final
Middle Tennessee
3–3 · Ours #127 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
SpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.MTSU −22.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.9 · MTSU covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
FCS opponent · display onlyFCS opponents are modeled by tier. No pick, no probability, never graded.
Quarterbacksthis game
Jim Ogle
11/16 · 118 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.22
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Replaced 5083941 in Q2
Roman Gagliano20/26 · 200 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3975th pct
- Comp %
- 76.9
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
No 2026 stats for Murray State (FCS), so the matchup and team-stat tables are left off.
Season so far
Murray State0–2
Lat Middle Tennessee14–38missed +22.5
at Middle Tennessee14–38missed +22.5L
at Oklahoma State0–59missed +55.5
at Oklahoma State0–59missed +55.5Middle Tennessee3–3 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is