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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs DEL · Tue, Oct 13 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Middle Tennessee

2–3 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−13.7
Rank
129
Résumé
111
Projected wins
4.6▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Murray StateMurray StateMTSU −26.9MTSU −22.5W 38–1454
Sat, Sep 129/12at MarshallMRSHMTSU +8.5MTSU +15.0L 26–2839MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19NevadaNEVMTSU PKMTSU +6.0W 27–2063MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Jacksonville StateJXSTMTSU +8.8MTSU +9.0L 13–2340JXST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at KansasKUMTSU +19.2MTSU +18.5L 0–5510KU · W
Tue, Oct 1310/13DelawareDELMTSU +4.6MTSU +1.0DEL −1.5Pass
Tue, Oct 2010/20at Florida InternationalFIUMTSU +10.9—wk 8
Wed, Oct 2810/28Kennesaw StateKENNMTSU +1.1—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Western KentuckyWKUMTSU +3.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at LibertyLIBMTSU +23.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Sam HoustonSHSUMTSU +2.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28New Mexico StateNMSUMTSU +1.0—wk 13

Model on MTSU games: 4–0 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–0 · home 3–0, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 3

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.62–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.1
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0295th
Success rate39.8%108th
Pass EPA+0.0489th
Rush EPA−0.00102nd
Explosive rate10.8%111th
Quality-drive rate47.8%88th
Points per quality drive4.079th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.15116th
Success allowed48.0%129th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0884th
Rush EPA allowed+0.21127th
Explosive allowed13.2%97th
Havoc rate5.7%134th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.7118th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin−0.2 yd78th
Hidden points / game+0.2banked
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−7.3%123rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−13.7129th
Schedule played−4.3110th
Schedule remaining−7.8109th
Full schedule−6.5121st
Pregame expected wins1.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 129th · −13.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMTSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Middle Tennesseeoff +0.02 95thdef +0.15 allowed · 116th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.