Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1FCS opponent · display only
Northwestern State
0–1 · unrated
6–80Final
Louisiana Tech
3–2 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
SpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.LT −44.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −29.3 · LT covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
FCS opponent · display onlyFCS opponents are modeled by tier. No pick, no probability, never graded.
Quarterbacksthis game
Abram Johnston
5/13 · 43 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.33
- Comp %
- 38.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Blake Baker10/14 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.25100th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
No 2026 stats for Northwestern State (FCS), so the matchup and team-stat tables are left off.
Season so far
Northwestern State0–1
Lat Louisiana Tech6–80missed +44.5
at Louisiana Tech6–80missed +44.5Louisiana Tech3–2 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is