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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana Tech

3–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−6.0
Rank
97
Résumé
49
Projected wins
7.1▲ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northwestern StateNorthwestern StateLT −29.3LT −44.5W 80–698
Sat, Sep 129/12at LSULSULT +24.5LT +32.5L 14–4542LT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at BaylorBAYLT +12.4LT +17.5L 19–3643LT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3ArmyARMYLT PKLT +2.0W 31–2957LT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10LouisianaULLT PKLT −2.5W 32–3161UL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at UL MonroeULMLT −13.5LT −15.0ULM +15.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Old DominionODULT −7.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at South AlabamaUSALT +2.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at TroyTROYLT +0.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Southern MissUSMLT −6.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Arkansas StateARSTLT −2.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Georgia SouthernGASOLT +1.1—wk 13

Model on LT games: 4–0 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–0 · home 1–0, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +5.4 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.13–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)66%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game21%
Win conference7%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1449th
Success rate40.9%96th
Pass EPA+0.1261st
Rush EPA+0.1539th
Explosive rate15.8%15th
Quality-drive rate53.8%61st
Points per quality drive3.984th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0364th
Success allowed38.2%42nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0157th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0682nd
Explosive allowed15.4%128th
Havoc rate13.2%8th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.8130th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin−0.8 yd86th
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.82.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected−2.6%80th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.097th
Schedule played+5.920th
Schedule remaining−9.0122nd
Full schedule−3.685th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 97th · −6.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMULTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisiana Techoff +0.14 49thdef +0.03 allowed · 64th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.