Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
East Carolina
3–2 · Ours #63 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–48FinalWe had ECU 15 – ALA 37
AP #13Alabama
5–1 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 90%ALA won
ALA 90%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −28.5.ALA −28oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.8 · ALA covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.2.52.5final 58 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU +28.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
ECU +28.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Mitch Griffis10/16 · 137 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Keelon Russell17/29 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0947th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East Carolinaoffense | Played like ALA +28.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 29.4%▼6.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.4%▲7.6 | 86th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.15 | 79th |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.30 | 27th |
| 2nd | −0.57▼0.61 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.57▲0.56 | 98th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.4 | 59th |
| Alabamaoffense | defenseEast Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 54.5%▲5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.5%▼24.5 | 14th |
| 84th | +0.33▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.52 | 17th |
| 78th | +0.37▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.74 | 22nd |
| 84th | +0.30▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.45 | 16th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East CarolinaECU | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2846th | Own 2850th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts62nd | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 171st | 4427th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −23.37th | +23.393rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.4 pts74th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +7.6: field position +0.2, kicking +0.3, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.619th | +7.682nd |
Season so far
East Carolina3–2 · 85th-hardest schedule
Lat Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Alabama5–1 · 5th-hardest schedule
Wvs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is