Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Clemson
3–2 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–51FinalWe had CLEM 23 – LSU 29
AP #11LSU
4–2 · Ours #23 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 62%LSU won
LSU 62%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −10.5.LSU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.1 · LSU covered by 31
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.0.49final 61 · over by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CLEM +10.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
CLEM +10.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Christopher Vizzina10/16 · 83 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.524th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Tait Reynolds
Sam Leavitt16/28 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0947th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Clemsonoffense | Played like LSU +52.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLSU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12.0%▼25.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 12.0%▲18.6 | 99th |
| 0th | −0.76▼0.76 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.76▲0.48 | 100th |
| 4th | −0.69▼0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.69▲0.29 | 96th |
| 0th | −0.86▼0.88 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.86▲0.73 | 100th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
| LSUoffense | defenseClemson | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 53.7%▲9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.7%▼14.3 | 15th |
| 69th | +0.20▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.28 | 31st |
| 25th | −0.21▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.04 | 75th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.40 | 7th |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ClemsonCLEM | LSULSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2633rd | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts81st | −0.5 pts27th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 253rd | 5444th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.15th | +27.195th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.6 pts85th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +7.1: field position +0.4, kicking −1.3, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +3.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.120th | +7.180th |
Season so far
Clemson3–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
Lat LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14LSU4–2 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is