Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Clemson

3–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+3.6
Rank
55
Résumé
31
Projected wins
6.7
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at LSULSUCLEM +5.1CLEM +10.5L 10–5115CLEM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Georgia SouthernGASOCLEM −16.6CLEM −21.0W 22–753GASO · W
Sat, Sep 199/19North CarolinaUNCCLEM −5.8CLEM −4.5W 28–2062CLEM · W
Fri, Sep 259/25at CaliforniaCALCLEM −7.4CLEM −1.0W 24–1065CLEM · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MiamiMIACLEM +16.9CLEM +16.5L 13–4141MIA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Charleston SouthernCharleston SouthernCLEM −41.2CLEM −43.0Charleston Southern +43.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at SyracuseSYRCLEM −3.8—wk 10
Fri, Nov 2011/20at DukeDUKECLEM +5.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28South CarolinaSCCLEM +2.4CLEM −3.0wk 13

Model on CLEM games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 4 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.73–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)56%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game4%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07129th
Success rate35.5%128th
Pass EPA−0.14125th
Rush EPA+0.0197th
Explosive rate10.8%109th
Quality-drive rate40.4%118th
Points per quality drive3.3112th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0336th
Success allowed42.0%84th
Pass EPA allowed−0.2010th
Rush EPA allowed+0.16118th
Explosive allowed11.8%75th
Havoc rate6.9%117th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+5.33rd
Turnover margin069th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+5.4 yd21st
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.13.0 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−0.8%63rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.655th
Schedule played+7.113th
Schedule remaining+4.253rd
Full schedule+5.530th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 55th · +3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSULouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCLEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Clemsonoff −0.07 129thdef −0.03 allowed · 36th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.