Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

LSU

4–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+18.6
Rank
8
Résumé
32
Projected wins
7.7▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
19%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5ClemsonCLEMLSU −5.1LSU −10.5W 51–1085CLEM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Louisiana TechLTLSU −24.5LSU −32.5W 45–1459LT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Ole MissMISSLSU +2.3LSU −2.5L 24–3245MISS · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Texas A&MTA&MLSU +0.9LSU −7.5W 35–684TA&M · L
Sat, Oct 310/3McNeeseMcNeeseLSU −56.3LSU −53.5W 63–1495
Sat, Oct 1010/10at KentuckyUKLSU −6.5LSU −10.0L 34–3559UK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Mississippi StateMSSTLSU −9.8LSU −14.0MSST +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at AuburnAUBLSU −5.7—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7AlabamaALALSU +4.5LSU −3.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TexasTEXLSU −0.9LSU +2.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TennesseeTENNLSU −3.3LSU −1.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ArkansasARKLSU −16.3—wk 13

Model on LSU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +6.6 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.74–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)84%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP19%
First-round bye2%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 24% with a win vs Mississippi State, 5% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 18% and 23%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1447th
Success rate48.0%31st
Pass EPA+0.1743rd
Rush EPA+0.1155th
Explosive rate14.7%32nd
Quality-drive rate57.9%35th
Points per quality drive4.729th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.252nd
Success allowed30.9%2nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.306th
Rush EPA allowed−0.188th
Explosive allowed9.8%33rd
Havoc rate14.4%4th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.372nd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+3.5 yd39th
Hidden points / game+1.8banked
Luck, wins−1.15.1 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−2.1%76th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.68th
Schedule played+6.118th
Schedule remaining+11.112th
Full schedule+8.813th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 8th · +18.6AP 22ndWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMULSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
LSUoff +0.14 47thdef −0.25 allowed · 2nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.