Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

LSU
4–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+18.6
Rank
8
Résumé
32
Projected wins
7.7▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
19%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on LSU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +6.6 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.74–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)84%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP19%
First-round bye2%
Win it all1%
- A CFP bid: 24% with a win vs Mississippi State, 5% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 18% and 23%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1447th
Success rate48.0%31st
Pass EPA+0.1743rd
Rush EPA+0.1155th
Explosive rate14.7%32nd
Quality-drive rate57.9%35th
Points per quality drive4.729th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.252nd
Success allowed30.9%2nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.306th
Rush EPA allowed−0.188th
Explosive allowed9.8%33rd
Havoc rate14.4%4th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.372nd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+3.5 yd39th
Hidden points / game+1.8banked
Luck, wins−1.15.1 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−2.1%76th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.68th
Schedule played+6.118th
Schedule remaining+11.112th
Full schedule+8.813th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 8th · +18.6AP 22ndWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
LSUoff +0.14 47thdef −0.25 allowed · 2nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
LSUoff +0.14 47thdef −0.25 allowed · 2nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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