Week 1 report · Sun, Sep 6 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
AP #24Louisville
3–3 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–41FinalWe had LOU 21 – MISS 36
AP #9Ole Miss
4–1 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 81%MISS won
MISS 81%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −6.5.MISS −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.8 · LOU covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.55final 79 · over by 24
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MISS −6.5Lmatched the close
MISS −6.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Lincoln Kienholz18/29 · 307 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3674th pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Trinidad Chambliss21/37 · 336 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4177th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisvilleoffense | Played like MISS +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.8%▼4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.8%▼0.9 | 40th |
| 74th | +0.24▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.13 | 26th |
| 78th | +0.36▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.10 | 22nd |
| 63rd | +0.14▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.14 | 37th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseLouisville | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 46.1%▼9.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.1%▼3.9 | 36th |
| 76th | +0.27▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.17 | 24th |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.22 | 20th |
| 63rd | +0.13▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.09 | 37th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisvilleLOU | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 3272nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.4 pts97th | +0.3 pts55th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6777th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.053rd | −1.047th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LOU +6.0: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.3, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −0.4. | +6.077th | −6.023rd |
Season so far
Louisville3–3 · 14th-hardest schedule
Lat Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3L
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5L
at NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5Ole Miss4–1 · 48th-hardest schedule
Wvs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 6, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is