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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs MIZ · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ole Miss

4–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+15.3
Rank
11
Résumé
16
Projected wins
8.1▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
23%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6LouisvilleLOUMISS −14.8MISS −6.5W 41–3851MISS · L
Sat, Sep 129/12CharlotteCLTMISS −44.0MISS −47.5W 41–965CLT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19LSULSUMISS −2.3MISS +2.5W 32–2455MISS · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at FloridaFLAMISS PKMISS +2.0L 28–5243MISS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at VanderbiltVANMISS −2.7MISS −10.0W 52–1778VAN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17MissouriMIZMISS PKMISS −6.0MIZ +6.5Lean · +0.7%
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TexasTEXMISS +4.2MISS +8.5wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31AuburnAUBMISS −9.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7GeorgiaUGAMISS +10.4MISS +4.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at OklahomaOUMISS −0.7MISS +4.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21WoffordWoffordMISS −51.6—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27Mississippi StateMSSTMISS −9.6MISS −14.5wk 13

Model on MISS games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +5.1 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.14–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins14%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game9%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP23%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 38% with a win vs Missouri, 8% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.259th
Success rate51.9%7th
Pass EPA+0.2924th
Rush EPA+0.2115th
Explosive rate12.1%87th
Quality-drive rate58.8%27th
Points per quality drive5.54th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.18122nd
Success allowed46.1%120th
Pass EPA allowed+0.29129th
Rush EPA allowed+0.1097th
Explosive allowed13.8%110th
Havoc rate9.2%67th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.176th
Turnover margin−5119th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−2.9 yd107th
Hidden points / game−2.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.83.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−11.3%133rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+15.311th
Schedule played+2.448th
Schedule remaining+14.43rd
Full schedule+8.911th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 11th · +15.3AP 9thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinLouisvilleSMUMISSgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ole Missoff +0.25 9thdef +0.18 allowed · 122nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.