Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisville

3–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+9.4
Rank
30
Résumé
62
Projected wins
7.1▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
3%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6at Ole MissMISSLOU +14.8LOU +6.5L 38–4149MISS · L
Fri, Sep 119/11VillanovaVillanovaLOU −33.5LOU −38.5W 59–1373
Sat, Sep 199/19SMUSMULOU +2.4LOU −1.5W 41–3167SMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Wake ForestWAKELOU −12.3LOU −13.5L 27–3044WAKE · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at NC StateNCSULOU −3.0LOU −3.5L 28–3163NCSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9Florida StateFSULOU −3.3LOU −4.5W 44–2069FSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at SyracuseSYRLOU −13.2LOU −14.5SYR +14.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Georgia TechGTLOU −7.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at KentuckyUKLOU +3.6—wk 13

Model on LOU games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.13–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)69%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game8%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP3%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
  • A CFP bid: 4% with a win vs Syracuse, <1% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for California over Wake Forest — swings a CFP bid between 2% and 6%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.303rd
Success rate49.6%17th
Pass EPA+0.3416th
Rush EPA+0.283rd
Explosive rate18.6%2nd
Quality-drive rate47.2%91st
Points per quality drive4.355th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13109th
Success allowed41.7%76th
Pass EPA allowed+0.23118th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0376th
Explosive allowed11.0%52nd
Havoc rate6.1%126th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.274th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin0.0 yd76th
Hidden points / game+0.1banked
Luck, wins−1.14.1 earned
One-score record0–3flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected+1.3%45th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.430th
Schedule played+6.914th
Schedule remaining+1.366th
Full schedule+3.949th
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 30th · +9.4AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissSMULOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisvilleoff +0.30 3rddef +0.13 allowed · 109th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.