LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College

Louisville

0–0 FBS · ACC · 2026
Rating
+8.3
Rank
29
Résumé
—
Our picks
—
2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Louisville's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
6.6projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)69%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins2%

Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 29thAP NRFinal

Playoff picture

from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game21%
Win conference10%
Make the CFP14%
First-round bye3%
Win it all1%
  • a CFP bid: 34% with a win vs Ole Miss, 9% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Alcorn State over Southern Miss — swings a CFP bid between 14% and 17%.

Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.1
8–4 vs 8.1
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected +4.5

Luck: −0.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 24th · +9.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.621st
Offense play value+0.460th
Defense efficiency+2.918th
Defense play value+2.332nd
Drive finishing−0.170th
Field position+1.511th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.13rd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.9 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.3
25th
Havoc rate
12.1%
30th
Rush rate over expected
−5.1%
107th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCUJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceLOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisvilleoff +0.03 68thdef −0.09 19th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–3
Pick was the dog6–1
Home / away side2–4 / 6–0
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.441st
Full season+3.441st

Upcoming

our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
DateOpponentOur lineMarketOur call
Sun, Sep 6at Ole MissLOU +12.3LOU +6.5MISS −6.5Pass
Fri, Sep 11VillanovaLOU −30.0—no line
Sat, Sep 19SMULOU −0.8—no line
Sat, Sep 26Wake ForestLOU −8.3—no line
Sat, Oct 3at NC StateLOU −1.8—no line
Fri, Oct 9Florida StateLOU −8.3—no line
Sat, Oct 17at SyracuseLOU −14.4—no line
Sat, Oct 31StanfordLOU −14.4—no line
Sat, Nov 7at Georgia TechLOU −1.1—no line
Sat, Nov 14at North CarolinaLOU −6.5—no line
Sat, Nov 21PittsburghLOU −5.2—no line
Sat, Nov 28at KentuckyLOU −2.4—no line

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.