Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
UL Monroe
0–5 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–62FinalWe had ULM 16 – MSST 38
Mississippi State
4–1 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSST 91%MSST won
MSST 91%MSST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MSST −28.5.MSST −28.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.9 · MSST covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.54.5final 75 · over by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ULM +28.5Lmatched the close
ULM +28.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Aidan Armenta10/16 · 67 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Austin Carlisle
Kamario Taylor22/34 · 354 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6089th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL Monroeoffense | Played like MSST +38.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 27.6%▼13.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.6%▲17.0 | 90th |
| 15th | −0.22▼0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.36 | 86th |
| 18th | −0.30▼0.47 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.56 | 82nd |
| 26th | −0.14▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.07 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | defenseUL Monroe | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 59.2%▲12.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.2%▼7.7 | 9th |
| 93rd | +0.46▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.21 | 7th |
| 87th | +0.54▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.54▼0.15 | 13th |
| 83rd | +0.30▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.14 | 17th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL MonroeULM | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2315th | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts49th | +0.8 pts69th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 297th | 4935th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −35.82nd | +35.898th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts60th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MSST +2.6: field position +2.3, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | −2.636th | +2.664th |
Season so far
UL Monroe0–5 · 93rd-hardest schedule
Lat Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5Mississippi State4–1 · 23rd-hardest schedule
Wvs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is