LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at LSU · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Mississippi State

4–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+9.7
Rank
27
Résumé
10
Projected wins
7.5▲ 3.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
6%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5UL MonroeULMMSST −22.9MSST −28.5W 62–1389ULM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at MinnesotaMINNMSST −3.4MSST −1.5W 38–1363MINN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at South CarolinaSCMSST +3.5MSST +3.5W 41–3473MSST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26MissouriMIZMSST −4.5MSST −3.5W 31–2450MIZ · L
Sat, Oct 310/3AlabamaALAMSST +6.6MSST +6.0L 23–5621ALA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at LSULSUMSST +9.8MSST +14.0MSST +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24OklahomaOUMSST +2.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at TexasTEXMSST +11.6—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7VanderbiltVANMSST −8.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14AuburnAUBMSST −2.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Tennessee TechTennessee TechMSST −44.9—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at Ole MissMISSMSST +9.6MSST +14.5wk 13

Model on MSST games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.54–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)77%
9+ wins5%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP6%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 17% with a win vs LSU, 2% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2026th
Success rate48.7%21st
Pass EPA+0.2435th
Rush EPA+0.1632nd
Explosive rate17.8%6th
Quality-drive rate54.9%53rd
Points per quality drive5.53rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0897th
Success allowed41.8%79th
Pass EPA allowed+0.17106th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0535th
Explosive allowed11.1%56th
Havoc rate8.0%96th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.371st
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−1.5 yd95th
Hidden points / game−2.3gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.8 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−4.7%105th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.727th
Schedule played+5.823rd
Schedule remaining+11.311th
Full schedule+8.812th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 27th · +9.7AP 16thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMSSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Mississippi Stateoff +0.20 26thdef +0.08 allowed · 97th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.