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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UL Monroe

0–5 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−21.2
Rank
137
Résumé
137
Projected wins
1.4▼ 2.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Mississippi StateMSSTULM +22.9ULM +28.5L 13–6211ULM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at UABUABULM +17.6ULM +10.5L 20–2631UAB · L
Sat, Sep 199/19SE LouisianaSE LouisianaULM −24.9ULM −9.5L 35–3860
Sat, Sep 269/26Florida AtlanticFAUULM +8.7ULM +13.0L 17–4547ULM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at South AlabamaUSAULM +18.9ULM +14.0L 35–5256USA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Louisiana TechLTULM +13.5ULM +15.0ULM +15.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TroyTROYULM +16.9—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Southern MissUSMULM +9.6—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Arkansas StateARSTULM +18.5—wk 10
Thu, Nov 1211/12LouisianaULULM +16.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at App StateAPPULM +15.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MarshallMRSHULM +9.4—wk 13

Model on ULM games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 0–2 · home 1–2, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
1.40–5 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1256th
Success rate43.5%65th
Pass EPA+0.0969th
Rush EPA+0.1633rd
Explosive rate12.6%73rd
Quality-drive rate42.6%112th
Points per quality drive4.261st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.24134th
Success allowed51.5%137th
Pass EPA allowed+0.42138th
Rush EPA allowed+0.10102nd
Explosive allowed15.2%125th
Havoc rate7.3%111th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−4.0132nd
Turnover margin−10137th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−3.7 yd119th
Hidden points / game−3.2gave up
Luck, wins−1.11.1 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−1.0%64th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−21.2137th
Schedule played−2.594th
Schedule remaining−7.0105th
Full schedule−5.4106th
Pregame expected wins1.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 137th · −21.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUULMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UL Monroeoff +0.12 56thdef +0.24 allowed · 134th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.