Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: High totals go under
Texas State
2–3 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–59FinalWe had TXST 17 – TEX 38
AP #5Texas
4–1 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 89%TEX won
TEX 89%TEX wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −30.5.TEX −29.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.3 · TEX covered by 22.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.61final 66 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TXST +30.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
TXST +30.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Brad Jackson15/23 · 150 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0543rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Gavin Parkhurst
Arch Manning20/27 · 305 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5989th pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Karle Lacey Jr.
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Stateoffense | Played like TEX +17.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.0%▼11.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼7.4 | 56th |
| 25th | −0.13▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▼0.07 | 75th |
| 80th | +0.41▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.63 | 20th |
| 1st | −0.76▼0.87 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.76▲0.61 | 99th |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
| Texasoffense | defenseTexas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 52.4%▲10.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.4%▼7.2 | 18th |
| 67th | +0.19▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.09 | 33rd |
| 77th | +0.34▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.19 | 24th |
| 45th | 0.00▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.02 | 56th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas StateTXST | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2211th | Own 4095th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −5.2 pts1st | +1.2 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3514th | 4224th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −22.18th | +22.192nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts16th | +1.0 pts94th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TEX +19.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.1, kicking +4.5, 4th downs +2.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | −19.61st | +19.699th |
Season so far
Texas State2–3 · 42nd-hardest schedule
Lat Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Texas4–1 · 7th-hardest schedule
Wvs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2Wvs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is