LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College

Texas State

0–0 FBS · Pac-12 · 2026
Rating
+1.6
Rank
60
Résumé
—
Our picks
—
2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Texas State's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
5.8projected wins · 11 games
Bowl (6+)57%
9+ wins9%
11+ wins0%

Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 60thFinal

Playoff picture

from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game39%
Win conference18%
Make the CFP7%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • a CFP bid: 24% with a win vs Texas, 3% with a loss.

Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.1
6–6 vs 7.1
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
−4
expected −1.5

Luck: −1.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 62nd · +0.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.833rd
Offense play value+3.127th
Defense efficiency−0.982nd
Defense play value−2.8110th
Drive finishing+0.827th
Field position−1.4129th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
78th
Havoc rate
14.1%
7th
Rush rate over expected
+4.6%
28th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTXSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas Stateoff +0.13 24thdef +0.04 70th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–2
Pick was the dog5–2
Home / away side5–2 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+2.2 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.9116th
Full season−4.9116th

Upcoming

our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
DateOpponentOur lineMarketOur call
Sat, Sep 5at TexasTXST +16.8TXST +30.5TXST +30.5Pass
Sat, Sep 12UTSATXST −5.4—no line
Sat, Sep 19North TexasTXST −3.2—no line
Sat, Sep 26Incarnate WordTXST −31.4—no line
Sat, Oct 3at San Diego StateTXST PK—no line
Thu, Oct 15Colorado StateTXST −16.1—no line
Sat, Oct 24Utah StateTXST −10.7—no line
Sat, Oct 31at Boise StateTXST +1.7—no line
Sat, Nov 7at Oregon StateTXST −8.5—no line
Sat, Nov 14Fresno StateTXST −6.3—no line
Sat, Nov 21Washington StateTXST −1.0—no line

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.