Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Arkansas
2–4 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–43FinalWe had ARK 23 – UTAH 37
AP #20Utah
5–0 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 80%UTAH won
UTAH 80%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −11.5.UTAH −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.9 · UTAH covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.4.55.5final 53 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARK +11.5Llost 2.0 to the close
ARK +11.5Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
KJ Jackson14/34 · 139 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 41.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by AJ Hill
Devon Dampier18/24 · 261 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2867th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansasoffense | Played like UTAH +39.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 29.3%▼10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.3%▲3.3 | 86th |
| 21st | −0.16▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▼0.04 | 79th |
| 32nd | −0.13▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▼0.04 | 68th |
| 19th | −0.21▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▼0.03 | 81st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Utahoffense | defenseArkansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 60.0%▲10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼15.7 | 7th |
| 97th | +0.55▲0.49 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.55▼0.42 | 4th |
| 84th | +0.48▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.48 | 16th |
| 97th | +0.62▲0.66 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.41 | 3rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArkansasARK | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 3790th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4122nd | 3514th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.24th | +27.296th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | −0.1 pts40th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTAH +5.1: field position +4.5, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs +0.8. | −5.128th | +5.173rd |
Season so far
Arkansas2–4 · 1st-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
Lat Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5W
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5Utah5–0 · 65th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
Wvs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is