Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Utah

5–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+19.6
Rank
6
Résumé
20
Projected wins
10.7▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
78%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3IdahoIdahoUTAH −32.8UTAH −37.5W 66–1480
Sat, Sep 129/12ArkansasARKUTAH −13.9UTAH −11.5W 43–1088ARK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Utah StateUSUUTAH −33.5UTAH −27.5W 33–083UTAH · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Iowa StateISUUTAH −11.2UTAH −12.0W 31–1753UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10KansasKUUTAH −16.7UTAH −15.0W 41–2456UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at ColoradoCOLOUTAH −25.0UTAH −15.5UTAH −15.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24HoustonHOUUTAH −10.1UTAH −6.5wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at CincinnatiCINUTAH −18.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7BYUBYUUTAH −9.2UTAH −3.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ArizonaARIZUTAH −7.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TCUTCUUTAH −15.7—wk 12

Model on UTAH games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 0–1 · home 2–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 4 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 8.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins87%
11+ wins27%

The 7 games left add 5.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game71%
Win conference48%
Make the CFP78%
First-round bye37%
Win it all7%
  • A CFP bid: 80% with a win vs Colorado, 47% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1736th
Success rate52.0%6th
Pass EPA+0.2532nd
Rush EPA+0.1057th
Explosive rate14.5%34th
Quality-drive rate62.5%14th
Points per quality drive5.013th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.168th
Success allowed32.9%8th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1031st
Rush EPA allowed−0.242nd
Explosive allowed8.7%14th
Havoc rate8.3%86th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.741st
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+5.5 yd20th
Hidden points / game+1.9banked
Luck, wins+0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−3.3%90th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+19.66th
Schedule played+0.565th
Schedule remaining+4.550th
Full schedule+3.054th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 6th · +19.6AP 11thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUTAHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Utahoff +0.17 36thdef −0.16 allowed · 8th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.