Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Utah
5–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+19.6
Rank
6
Résumé
20
Projected wins
10.7▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
78%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UTAH games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 0–1 · home 2–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 4 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 8.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins87%
11+ wins27%
The 7 games left add 5.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game71%
Win conference48%
Make the CFP78%
First-round bye37%
Win it all7%
- A CFP bid: 80% with a win vs Colorado, 47% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1736th
Success rate52.0%6th
Pass EPA+0.2532nd
Rush EPA+0.1057th
Explosive rate14.5%34th
Quality-drive rate62.5%14th
Points per quality drive5.013th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.168th
Success allowed32.9%8th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1031st
Rush EPA allowed−0.242nd
Explosive allowed8.7%14th
Havoc rate8.3%86th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.741st
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+5.5 yd20th
Hidden points / game+1.9banked
Luck, wins+0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−3.3%90th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+19.66th
Schedule played+0.565th
Schedule remaining+4.550th
Full schedule+3.054th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 6th · +19.6AP 11thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Utahoff +0.17 36thdef −0.16 allowed · 8th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Utahoff +0.17 36thdef −0.16 allowed · 8th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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