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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arkansas

2–4 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
−2.8
Rank
81
Résumé
84
Projected wins
3.3▼ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5North AlabamaNorth AlabamaARK −30.6ARK −40.5W 31–1466
Sat, Sep 129/12at UtahUTAHARK +13.9ARK +11.5L 10–4312ARK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19GeorgiaUGAARK +26.9ARK +24.5L 17–4518UGA · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TulsaTLSAARK −13.3ARK −9.5W 34–653ARK · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Texas A&MTA&MARK +15.2ARK +14.0L 7–3424TA&M · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TennesseeTENNARK +10.8ARK +13.5L 17–2444ARK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at VanderbiltVANARK +5.9ARK +6.0ARK +6.0Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31MissouriMIZARK +18.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at AuburnAUBARK +12.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14South CarolinaSCARK +8.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TexasTEXARK +22.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LSULSUARK +16.3—wk 13

Model on ARK games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 3–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 5 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.32–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.3
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07130th
Success rate41.7%88th
Pass EPA−0.06116th
Rush EPA−0.09125th
Explosive rate9.9%121st
Quality-drive rate48.2%87th
Points per quality drive3.5104th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12105th
Success allowed43.5%94th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0446th
Rush EPA allowed+0.25135th
Explosive allowed13.3%100th
Havoc rate9.5%62nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.387th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+0.1 yd74th
Hidden points / game+0.0banked
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−6.2%117th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.881st
Schedule played+11.91st
Schedule remaining+11.410th
Full schedule+11.61st
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 81st · −2.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARKgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arkansasoff −0.07 130thdef +0.12 allowed · 105th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.