Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Mississippi State
4–1 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–13FinalWe had MSST 30 – MINN 27
Minnesota
4–2 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSST 58%MSST won
MSST 58%MSST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MINN +1.5.PKoursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.4 · MSST covered by 25
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.54.5final 51 · under by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MINN +1.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
MINN +1.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kamario Taylor16/22 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0241st pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Drake Lindsey31/48 · 279 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1048th pct
- Comp %
- 64.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi Stateoffense | Played like MSST +11.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMinnesota | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 61.5%▲15.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 61.5%▼22.6 | 6th |
| 72nd | +0.22▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.34 | 28th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.23 | 53rd |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.37 | 12th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Minnesotaoffense | defenseMississippi State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.4%▲3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.4%▼0.2 | 51st |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.03 | 52nd |
| 56th | +0.13▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.02 | 44th |
| 9th | −0.34▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.33 | 91st |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi StateMSST | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 181st | Own 2631st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts15th | +1.9 pts92nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5241st | 5853rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +27.196th | −27.14th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | +0.2 pts64th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +10.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.7, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −10.89th | +10.891st |
Season so far
Mississippi State4–1 · 23rd-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5Wat Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5Minnesota4–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
Lvs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKW
vs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23W
at Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12W
vs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is