Minnesota

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs IOWA · Sat, Oct 24 · time TBD →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

4–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season

Rating

+0.1

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

5.3▲ 0.5 vs preseason

CFP odds

<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Thu, Sep 39/3Eastern IllinoisEastern IllinoisMINN −27.2MINN −42.5W 59–769

Sat, Sep 129/12

Mississippi StateMSSTMINN +3.4MINN +1.5L 13–3838MINN · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

AkronAKRMINN −19.2MINN −26.5W 41–758AKR · L

Sat, Sep 269/26

at WashingtonWASHMINN +8.7MINN +9.5W 27–2455WASH · L

Sat, Oct 310/3

MichiganMICHMINN +9.1MINN +5.5W 20–1451MICH · L

Sat, Oct 1010/10

at PurduePURMINN −5.9MINN −2.5L 13–4133MINN · L

Sat, Oct 2410/24

IowaIOWAMINN +12.6—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

at IndianaIUMINN +22.8—wk 9

Sat, Nov 711/7

UCLAUCLAMINN +12.7—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at Penn StatePSUMINN +9.1—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

NorthwesternNUMINN +8.0—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

at WisconsinWISMINN +14.3—wk 13

Model on MINN games: 0–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 0–2 · home 0–2, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

5.34–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.8

Bowl (6+)13%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game<1%

Win conference<1%

Make the CFP<1%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.03115th

Success rate41.7%87th

Pass EPA+0.1067th

Rush EPA−0.20138th

Explosive rate12.4%76th

Quality-drive rate57.9%35th

Points per quality drive3.2114th

Defense

EPA allowed−0.0338th

Success allowed41.7%77th

Pass EPA allowed−0.1324th

Rush EPA allowed+0.0890th

Explosive allowed13.1%96th

Havoc rate11.7%24th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game+3.416th

Turnover margin+340th · exp. +0.5

Field position margin+9.4 yd7th

Hidden points / game+4.2banked

Luck, wins+0.83.2 earned

One-score record2–0flipped 2–4

Rush rate over expected−8.7%130th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average+0.163rd

Schedule played−0.276th

Schedule remaining+11.96th

Full schedule+6.425th

Pregame expected wins2.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 63rd · +0.1Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Minnesotaoff −0.03 115thdef −0.03 allowed · 38th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.