Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
AP #11Oklahoma
3–2 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–17FinalWe had OU 29 – MICH 26
Michigan
3–2 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 55%MICH won
OU 55%MICH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −6.OU −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.2 · MICH covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.43.5final 27 · under by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
MICH +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
John Mateer17/33 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3510th pct
- Comp %
- 51.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Bryce Underwood9/17 · 111 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 52.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahomaoffense | Played like MICH +6.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 33.9%▼4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.9%▼1.2 | 75th |
| 20th | −0.17▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.03 | 80th |
| 14th | −0.35▼0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.23 | 86th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.28 | 46th |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
| Michiganoffense | defenseOklahoma | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 28.6%▼16.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.6%▲6.5 | 88th |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.11 | 59th |
| 41st | −0.04▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.18 | 60th |
| 47th | +0.01▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.04 | 53rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OklahomaOU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts61st | +0.8 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 5648th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.055th | −2.045th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MICH +10.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.0, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.9. | −10.211th | +10.289th |
Season so far
Oklahoma3–2 · 11th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41Lat Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5Michigan3–2 · 71st-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5Wvs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5Wvs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is