2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Michigan's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
6.9projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)74%
9+ wins25%
11+ wins4%
Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.
Scoreboard watch: root for North Texas over Indiana — swings a CFP bid between 18% and 23%.
Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Luck & what-ifs
2025 final
One-score record
3–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.2
9–4 vs 8.8
One-score games flipped
6–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−3
expected −0.5
Luck: +1.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.
ConjPWR profile
2025 final · 33rd · +6.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.832nd
Offense play value+2.034th
Defense efficiency+0.352nd
Defense play value+1.149th
Drive finishing+0.159th
Field position+1.021st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion0.060th
Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.
Hidden game
special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.7
117th
Havoc rate
10.6%
72nd
Rush rate over expected
+3.2%
35th · run-leaning
The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
Michiganoff +0.11 32nddef +0.01 50th
Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–5
Pick was the dog0–2
Home / away side3–3 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 13
Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.
Schedule strength
opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.530th
Full season+4.530th
Upcoming
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