Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma

3–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.5
Rank
21
Résumé
26
Projected wins
6.8▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
14%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4UTEPUTEPOU −30.8OU −41.5W 51–067UTEP · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at MichiganMICHOU −2.2OU −6.5L 10–1739MICH · W
Sat, Sep 199/19New MexicoUNMOU −22.8OU −21.5W 14–662UNM · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at GeorgiaUGAOU +14.8OU +13.5L 13–4135UGA · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TexasTEXOU +7.0OU +8.0W 27–2446OU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17KentuckyUKOU −5.7OU −7.0UK +6.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at FloridaFLAOU −0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Ole MissMISSOU +0.7OU −4.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Texas A&MTA&MOU −4.9OU −2.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at MissouriMIZOU +7.5—wk 13

Model on OU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.83–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)80%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP14%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 20% with a win vs Kentucky, 3% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.12134th
Success rate36.4%127th
Pass EPA−0.06115th
Rush EPA−0.19136th
Explosive rate9.1%130th
Quality-drive rate33.3%135th
Points per quality drive3.2115th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1119th
Success allowed32.5%6th
Pass EPA allowed−0.2011th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0442nd
Explosive allowed9.3%23rd
Havoc rate10.6%41st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.935th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−7.1 yd134th
Hidden points / game−1.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−0.1%56th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.521st
Schedule played+8.411th
Schedule remaining+10.813th
Full schedule+9.84th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 21st · +10.5AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oklahomaoff −0.12 134thdef −0.11 allowed · 19th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.