Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma
3–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.5
Rank
21
Résumé
26
Projected wins
6.8▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
14%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 3 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.83–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)80%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 3.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP14%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 20% with a win vs Kentucky, 3% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.12134th
Success rate36.4%127th
Pass EPA−0.06115th
Rush EPA−0.19136th
Explosive rate9.1%130th
Quality-drive rate33.3%135th
Points per quality drive3.2115th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1119th
Success allowed32.5%6th
Pass EPA allowed−0.2011th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0442nd
Explosive allowed9.3%23rd
Havoc rate10.6%41st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.935th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−7.1 yd134th
Hidden points / game−1.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−0.1%56th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.521st
Schedule played+8.411th
Schedule remaining+10.813th
Full schedule+9.84th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 21st · +10.5AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Oklahomaoff −0.12 134thdef −0.11 allowed · 19th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Oklahomaoff −0.12 134thdef −0.11 allowed · 19th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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