Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
AP #18Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–24FinalWe had TENN 32 – GT 27
Georgia Tech
2–3 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 62%TENN won
TENN 62%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TENN −13.5.TENN −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5 · TENN covered by 9
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.4.55.5final 69 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GT +13Lbeat the close by 1.0
GT +13Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Faizon Brandon10/21 · 148 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1755th pct
- Comp %
- 47.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Alberto Mendoza26/40 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2617th pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tennesseeoffense | Played like TENN +17.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼5.2 | 37th |
| 82nd | +0.32▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.16 | 18th |
| 59th | +0.17▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.13 | 41st |
| 91st | +0.40▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.37 | 9th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Georgia Techoffense | defenseTennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 46.5%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.5%▼7.7 | 35th |
| 27th | −0.11▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11 | 73rd |
| 22nd | −0.26▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▼0.02 | 78th |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.05 | 39th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TennesseeTENN | Georgia TechGT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3482nd | Own 2631st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts58th | +0.4 pts55th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6675th | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.577th | −10.523rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | −0.6 pts20th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +8.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.0, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | +8.083rd | −8.017th |
Season so far
Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
Wat Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameW
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Georgia Tech2–3 · 62nd-hardest schedule
L
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5Lvs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
L
at Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3W
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is