Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tennessee

5–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+12.3
Rank
14
Résumé
22
Projected wins
7.9▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
12%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5FurmanFurmanTENN −31.4TENN −49.0W 56–988
Sat, Sep 129/12at Georgia TechGTTENN −5.0TENN −13.0W 45–2478GT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Kennesaw StateKENNTENN −31.7TENN −34.5W 42–974KENN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TexasTEXTENN +6.3TENN +5.5L 17–2050TEX · L
Sat, Oct 310/3AuburnAUBTENN −4.4TENN −7.0W 24–1458AUB · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ArkansasARKTENN −10.8TENN −13.5W 24–1756ARK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17AlabamaALATENN +10.0TENN +8.5ALA −8.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7KentuckyUKTENN −3.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Texas A&MTA&MTENN +1.3TENN +8.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21LSULSUTENN +3.3TENN +1.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at VanderbiltVANTENN −7.2TENN −3.0wk 13

Model on TENN games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.95–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)85%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP12%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 30% with a win vs Alabama, 5% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1068th
Success rate43.2%68th
Pass EPA−0.16128th
Rush EPA+0.282nd
Explosive rate12.0%90th
Quality-drive rate49.2%82nd
Points per quality drive4.351st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1414th
Success allowed39.5%55th
Pass EPA allowed−0.351st
Rush EPA allowed+0.11105th
Explosive allowed10.2%38th
Havoc rate12.4%14th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.544th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+3.8 yd35th
Hidden points / game+5.0banked
Luck, wins−0.45.4 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+4.5%28th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.314th
Schedule played+2.350th
Schedule remaining+11.68th
Full schedule+7.417th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 14th · +12.3AP 14thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTENNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tennesseeoff +0.10 68thdef −0.14 allowed · 14th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.