Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tennessee
5–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+12.3
Rank
14
Résumé
22
Projected wins
7.9▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
12%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on TENN games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.95–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)85%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 2.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP12%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 30% with a win vs Alabama, 5% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1068th
Success rate43.2%68th
Pass EPA−0.16128th
Rush EPA+0.282nd
Explosive rate12.0%90th
Quality-drive rate49.2%82nd
Points per quality drive4.351st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1414th
Success allowed39.5%55th
Pass EPA allowed−0.351st
Rush EPA allowed+0.11105th
Explosive allowed10.2%38th
Havoc rate12.4%14th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.544th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+3.8 yd35th
Hidden points / game+5.0banked
Luck, wins−0.45.4 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+4.5%28th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.314th
Schedule played+2.350th
Schedule remaining+11.68th
Full schedule+7.417th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 14th · +12.3AP 14thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Tennesseeoff +0.10 68thdef −0.14 allowed · 14th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Tennesseeoff +0.10 68thdef −0.14 allowed · 14th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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