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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at VT · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia Tech

2–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
68
Résumé
110
Projected wins
4.5▼ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3ColoradoCOLOGT −12.7GT −6.5L 13–1452GT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12TennesseeTENNGT +5.0GT +13.0L 24–4523GT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19MercerMercerGT −31.8GT −38.5W 44–1166
Sat, Sep 269/26at StanfordSTANGT −5.5GT −5.5L 27–3439STAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10DukeDUKEGT +3.7GT +7.0W 28–2549GT · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Virginia TechVTGT +6.2GT +10.0GT +9.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Boston CollegeBCGT −11.2—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at PittsburghPITTGT +7.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7LouisvilleLOUGT +7.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ClemsonCLEMGT +2.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Wake ForestWAKEGT +8.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at GeorgiaUGAGT +31.8—wk 13

Model on GT games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 2–2, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +4.1 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.52–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)7%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0879th
Success rate45.4%49th
Pass EPA+0.0680th
Rush EPA+0.1059th
Explosive rate15.9%12th
Quality-drive rate58.0%34th
Points per quality drive3.799th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.17118th
Success allowed42.6%87th
Pass EPA allowed+0.20111th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15115th
Explosive allowed11.3%62nd
Havoc rate7.1%113th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.614th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−3.5 yd117th
Hidden points / game−7.9gave up
Luck, wins+0.11.9 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected−4.7%103rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.168th
Schedule played+0.862nd
Schedule remaining+7.629th
Full schedule+5.137th
Pregame expected wins1.0of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 68th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Techoff +0.08 79thdef +0.17 allowed · 118th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.