Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Florida
4–2 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
44–39FinalWe had FLA 28 – AUB 24
Auburn
3–2 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FLA 59%FLA won
FLA 59%FLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −2.5.FLA −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.6 · FLA covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.2.53final 83 · over by 30
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
AUB +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Aaron Philo15/22 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3473rd pct
- Comp %
- 68.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Byrum Brown20/35 · 271 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1857th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Floridaoffense | Played like AUB +3.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 38.7%▼9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.7%▲1.0 | 60th |
| 74th | +0.24▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.33 | 26th |
| 86th | +0.51▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.78 | 14th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.11 | 41st |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Auburnoffense | defenseFlorida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.9%▲2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.9%▲2.9 | 42nd |
| 77th | +0.27▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.05 | 24th |
| 62nd | +0.18▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.05 | 38th |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.20 | 8th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| FloridaFLA | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3586th | Own 3165th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts83rd | +0.8 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7592nd | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.530th | +7.570th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts96th | +0.4 pts76th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FLA +5.3: field position +1.6, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs +2.3. | +5.374th | −5.326th |
Season so far
Florida4–2 · 8th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
Wat Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5Auburn3–2 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5Lvs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is