Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida

4–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+6.5
Rank
39
Résumé
24
Projected wins
6.6▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Florida AtlanticFAUFLA −24.3FLA −26.5W 66–2173FAU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12CampbellCampbellFLA −43.5FLA −51.0W 52–387
Sat, Sep 199/19at AuburnAUBFLA −3.6FLA −2.5W 44–3949AUB · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Ole MissMISSFLA PKFLA −2.0W 52–2857MISS · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at MissouriMIZFLA PKFLA −5.0L 17–4520MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10South CarolinaSCFLA −9.4FLA −14.0L 19–3838SC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at TexasTEXFLA +9.9FLA +10.5FLA +10.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at GeorgiaUGAFLA +17.2FLA +12.5wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7OklahomaOUFLA +0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at KentuckyUKFLA +1.5—wk 11

Model on FLA games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.64–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)52%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 7% with a win vs Texas, <1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2510th
Success rate48.3%26th
Pass EPA+0.444th
Rush EPA+0.1153rd
Explosive rate15.6%18th
Quality-drive rate57.9%35th
Points per quality drive5.014th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.19125th
Success allowed44.5%106th
Pass EPA allowed+0.17105th
Rush EPA allowed+0.23132nd
Explosive allowed11.3%60th
Havoc rate8.8%75th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.318th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+5.1 yd24th
Hidden points / game+1.8banked
Luck, wins+0.43.6 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+1.1%48th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.539th
Schedule played+9.08th
Schedule remaining+11.59th
Full schedule+10.32nd
Pregame expected wins2.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 39th · +6.5AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFLAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Floridaoff +0.25 10thdef +0.19 allowed · 125th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.