Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida
4–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+6.5
Rank
39
Résumé
24
Projected wins
6.6▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on FLA games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 3 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.64–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)52%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 2.6 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 7% with a win vs Texas, <1% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2510th
Success rate48.3%26th
Pass EPA+0.444th
Rush EPA+0.1153rd
Explosive rate15.6%18th
Quality-drive rate57.9%35th
Points per quality drive5.014th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.19125th
Success allowed44.5%106th
Pass EPA allowed+0.17105th
Rush EPA allowed+0.23132nd
Explosive allowed11.3%60th
Havoc rate8.8%75th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.318th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+5.1 yd24th
Hidden points / game+1.8banked
Luck, wins+0.43.6 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+1.1%48th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.539th
Schedule played+9.08th
Schedule remaining+11.59th
Full schedule+10.32nd
Pregame expected wins2.8of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 39th · +6.5AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Floridaoff +0.25 10thdef +0.19 allowed · 125th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Floridaoff +0.25 10thdef +0.19 allowed · 125th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

at 
at 
at
at 
at 
at