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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Auburn

3–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+6.1
Rank
40
Résumé
43
Projected wins
6.1▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5BaylorBAYAUB −14.1AUB −7.0W 17–1642AUB · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Southern MissUSMAUB −20.3AUB −30.0W 43–888USM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19FloridaFLAAUB +3.6AUB +2.5L 39–4451AUB · L
Sat, Sep 269/26VanderbiltVANAUB −1.2AUB −9.5W 21–1544VAN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at TennesseeTENNAUB +4.4AUB +7.0L 14–2442AUB · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at GeorgiaUGAAUB +21.4AUB +20.5UGA −20.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24LSULSUAUB +5.7—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Ole MissMISSAUB +9.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7ArkansasARKAUB −12.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Mississippi StateMSSTAUB +2.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21SamfordSamfordAUB −48.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at AlabamaALAAUB +16.9AUB +10.0wk 13

Model on AUB games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +6.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.13–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)34%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 4% with a win vs Georgia, <1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0486th
Success rate41.6%91st
Pass EPA−0.01101st
Rush EPA+0.0865th
Explosive rate13.8%50th
Quality-drive rate50.9%75th
Points per quality drive4.077th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0150th
Success allowed39.5%54th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0934th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0787th
Explosive allowed8.2%9th
Havoc rate10.5%43rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.275th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin−1.9 yd97th
Hidden points / game−0.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.32.6 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−4.6%101st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.140th
Schedule played+3.339th
Schedule remaining+15.01st
Full schedule+9.76th
Pregame expected wins0.9of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 40th · +6.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUAUBgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Auburnoff +0.04 86thdef −0.01 allowed · 50th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.