Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
AP #7LSU
4–2 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–32FinalWe had LSU 26 – MISS 28
AP #8Ole Miss
4–1 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 55%MISS won
MISS 55%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −2.5.LSU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.3 · MISS covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.58.5final 56 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MISS +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
MISS +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Sam Leavitt16/27 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2362nd pct
- Comp %
- 59.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Trinidad Chambliss33/48 · 363 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2362nd pct
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSUoffense | Played like MISS +4.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOle Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.5%▼3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.5%▲0.8 | 43rd |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.02 | 40th |
| 66th | +0.23▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.07 | 34th |
| 51st | +0.04▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.03 | 49th |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Ole Missoffense | defenseLSU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.8%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼21.1 | 43rd |
| 69th | +0.20▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.72 | 31st |
| 62nd | +0.19▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.81 | 38th |
| 73rd | +0.21▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.61 | 27th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSULSU | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3378th | Own 227th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts50th | −0.7 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6982nd | 7389th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.441st | +3.459th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts76th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +4.9: field position +4.1, kicking +0.7, 4th downs +0.2. | +4.972nd | −4.928th |
Season so far
LSU4–2 · 18th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35Lat Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5Ole Miss4–1 · 48th-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45Wvs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is