Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Troy
3–2 · Ours #114 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–27FinalWe had TROY 11 – MIZ 38
AP #20Missouri
5–1 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIZ 95%MIZ won
MIZ 95%MIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIZ −27.5.MIZ −27oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.1 · TROY covered by 17
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.7.49.5final 44 · under by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TROY +27.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
TROY +27.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Goose Crowder18/32 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2715th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Austin Simmons10/19 · 91 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2419th pct
- Comp %
- 52.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Troyoffense | Played like MIZ +5.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.7%▼10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.7%▼0.7 | 74th |
| 18th | −0.19▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.05 | 82nd |
| 20th | −0.27▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.18 | 80th |
| 30th | −0.11▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▼0.09 | 70th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 84th |
| Missourioffense | defenseTroy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 31.2%▼10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.2%▲14.2 | 82nd |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.23 | 67th |
| 50th | +0.06▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.23 | 50th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.08 | 76th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TroyTROY | MissouriMIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 215th | Own 4197th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts21st | +1.1 pts77th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7287th | 4833rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.353rd | −1.347th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts41st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIZ +18.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.9, kicking +1.6, return touchdowns +4.2. | −18.01st | +18.099th |
Season so far
Troy3–2 · 103rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
Lat Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Missouri5–1 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
W
at Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4Wvs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27L
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5W
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5W
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is