Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Missouri

5–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+16.4
Rank
10
Résumé
14
Projected wins
8.6▲ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
41%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3Arkansas-Pine BluffArkansas-Pine BluffMIZ −31.3MIZ −55.5W 54–1494
Fri, Sep 119/11at KansasKUMIZ −5.8MIZ −6.5W 38–2173KU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19TroyTROYMIZ −27.1MIZ −27.5W 27–1758TROY · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Mississippi StateMSSTMIZ +4.5MIZ +3.5L 24–3150MIZ · L
Sat, Oct 310/3FloridaFLAMIZ PKMIZ +5.0W 45–1781MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Texas A&MTA&MMIZ −8.2MIZ −3.5W 27–663MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Ole MissMISSMIZ PKMIZ +6.0MIZ +6.5Lean · +0.7%
Sat, Oct 3110/31at ArkansasARKMIZ −18.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7TexasTEXMIZ −2.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at GeorgiaUGAMIZ +12.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21KentuckyUKMIZ −11.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28OklahomaOUMIZ −7.5—wk 13

Model on MIZ games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 4 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.65–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins22%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game12%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP41%
First-round bye7%
Win it all1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1544th
Success rate42.1%82nd
Pass EPA+0.3317th
Rush EPA−0.02105th
Explosive rate14.1%39th
Quality-drive rate57.1%41st
Points per quality drive3.892nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1512th
Success allowed32.9%9th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1620th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1415th
Explosive allowed11.0%53rd
Havoc rate12.4%13th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.761st
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+7.9 yd10th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins−0.15.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected+1.3%44th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+16.410th
Schedule played+5.424th
Schedule remaining+12.75th
Full schedule+9.48th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 10th · +16.4AP 13thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMIZgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Missourioff +0.15 44thdef −0.15 allowed · 12th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.