Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Missouri
5–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+16.4
Rank
10
Résumé
14
Projected wins
8.6▲ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
41%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MIZ games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 4 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.65–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins22%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.6 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game12%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP41%
First-round bye7%
Win it all1%
- A CFP bid: 60% with a win vs Ole Miss, 21% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Arizona State over Texas Tech — swings a CFP bid between 40% and 44%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1544th
Success rate42.1%82nd
Pass EPA+0.3317th
Rush EPA−0.02105th
Explosive rate14.1%39th
Quality-drive rate57.1%41st
Points per quality drive3.892nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1512th
Success allowed32.9%9th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1620th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1415th
Explosive allowed11.0%53rd
Havoc rate12.4%13th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.761st
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+7.9 yd10th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins−0.15.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected+1.3%44th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+16.410th
Schedule played+5.424th
Schedule remaining+12.75th
Full schedule+9.48th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 10th · +16.4AP 13thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Missourioff +0.15 44thdef −0.15 allowed · 12th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Missourioff +0.15 44thdef −0.15 allowed · 12th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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