LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at UL · Sat, Oct 17 · 5:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Troy

3–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−4.0
Rank
87
Résumé
79
Projected wins
6.2▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Sam HoustonSHSUTROY −14.5TROY −16.5W 24–2150SHSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Alabama StateAlabama StateTROY −26.1TROY −23.5W 34–1767
Sat, Sep 199/19at MissouriMIZTROY +27.1TROY +27.5L 17–2743TROY · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Utah StateUSUTROY PKTROY +2.5L 10–2137TROY · L
Tue, Oct 610/6Southern MissUSMTROY −0.7TROY −10.5W 55–3448USM · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at LouisianaULTROY +5.6TROY +4.0UL −3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24UL MonroeULMTROY −16.9—wk 8
Thu, Oct 2910/29at James MadisonJMUTROY +17.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Louisiana TechLTTROY −0.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at South AlabamaUSATROY +4.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Georgia SouthernGASOTROY −1.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Arkansas StateARSTTROY +3.4—wk 13

Model on TROY games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.23–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)42%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0293rd
Success rate42.3%81st
Pass EPA−0.08119th
Rush EPA+0.1056th
Explosive rate12.6%74th
Quality-drive rate46.8%93rd
Points per quality drive3.6102nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0475th
Success allowed39.3%52nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1499th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0827th
Explosive allowed13.5%102nd
Havoc rate10.9%37th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.4117th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−5.4 yd130th
Hidden points / game−4.2gave up
Luck, wins+0.82.3 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected+1.4%42nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.087th
Schedule played−3.4103rd
Schedule remaining−5.394th
Full schedule−4.698th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 87th · −4.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganSam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTROYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Troyoff +0.02 93rddef +0.04 allowed · 75th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.