Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3in trend: High totals go under
New Mexico
4–1 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–14FinalWe had UNM 10 – OU 33
AP #24Oklahoma
3–2 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OU 91%OU won
OU 91%OU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OU −22.5.OU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.8 · UNM covered by 13
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 43.7.45.5final 20 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNM +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
UNM +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Toa Fa'avae4/10 · 79 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.466th pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Relieved in Q1 by Luke Moga
John Mateer19/26 · 238 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2968th pct
- Comp %
- 73.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexicooffense | Played like OU +15.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 22.4%▼30.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 22.4%▲14.2 | 95th |
| 8th | −0.33▼0.60 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.30 | 92nd |
| 7th | −0.53▼0.98 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.44 | 93rd |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.20 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Oklahomaoffense | defenseNew Mexico | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.2%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▼7.4 | 70th |
| 32nd | −0.07▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.34 | 68th |
| 72nd | +0.29▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.93 | 29th |
| 7th | −0.38▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.21 | 93rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼1.0 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New MexicoUNM | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4096th | Own 228th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts75th | −2.2 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5853rd | 5853rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −21.29th | +21.292nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts31st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNM +15.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.4, kicking +2.3, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +1.5. | +15.098th | −15.03rd |
Season so far
New Mexico4–1 · 133rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
Lat Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5W
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5Oklahoma3–2 · 11th-hardest schedule
Wvs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5Wvs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12W
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is