Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico

4–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+9.0
Rank
32
Résumé
52
Projected wins
9.8▲ 4.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Central MichiganCMUUNM −8.2UNM −10.5W 38–781CMU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12MercyhurstMercyhurstUNM −38.1UNM −42.5W 70–785
Sat, Sep 199/19at OklahomaOUUNM +22.8UNM +21.5L 6–1438UNM · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at New Mexico StateNMSUUNM −11.6UNM −13.5W 42–1876NMSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3UTEPUTEPUNM −27.1UNM −22.5W 61–789UNM · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Hawai'iHAWUNM −19.4UNM −14.5UNM −14.5Pass
Fri, Nov 611/6at NevadaNEVUNM −14.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14UNLVUNLVUNM −16.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at WyomingWYOUNM −20.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Air ForceAFUNM −15.4—wk 13

Model on UNM games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.1 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.84–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins66%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 5.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game90%
Win conference65%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1066th
Success rate43.7%62nd
Pass EPA+0.0486th
Rush EPA+0.1441st
Explosive rate14.3%36th
Quality-drive rate72.5%1st
Points per quality drive4.260th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.291st
Success allowed31.2%3rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.342nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.233rd
Explosive allowed8.9%16th
Havoc rate17.2%1st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.825th
Turnover margin+141st · exp. +13.5
Field position margin+18.1 yd1st
Hidden points / game+17.4banked
Luck, wins−0.24.2 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–0
Rush rate over expected+9.5%9th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.032nd
Schedule played−8.8133rd
Schedule remaining−5.895th
Full schedule−6.9123rd
Pregame expected wins2.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 32nd · +9.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexicooff +0.10 66thdef −0.29 allowed · 1st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.