Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico
4–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+9.0
Rank
32
Résumé
52
Projected wins
9.8▲ 4.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UNM games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.1 · closer than the market 2 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.84–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins66%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 5.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game90%
Win conference65%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 10% with a win vs Hawai'i, 1% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Georgia State over James Madison — swings a CFP bid between 7% and 14%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1066th
Success rate43.7%62nd
Pass EPA+0.0486th
Rush EPA+0.1441st
Explosive rate14.3%36th
Quality-drive rate72.5%1st
Points per quality drive4.260th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.291st
Success allowed31.2%3rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.342nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.233rd
Explosive allowed8.9%16th
Havoc rate17.2%1st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.825th
Turnover margin+141st · exp. +13.5
Field position margin+18.1 yd1st
Hidden points / game+17.4banked
Luck, wins−0.24.2 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–0
Rush rate over expected+9.5%9th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.032nd
Schedule played−8.8133rd
Schedule remaining−5.895th
Full schedule−6.9123rd
Pregame expected wins2.4of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 32nd · +9.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
New Mexicooff +0.10 66thdef −0.29 allowed · 1st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
New Mexicooff +0.10 66thdef −0.29 allowed · 1st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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