Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Mississippi State
4–1 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–34FinalWe had MSST 28 – SC 32
South Carolina
3–3 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SC 58%MSST won
SC 58%MSST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SC −3.5.SC −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.5 · MSST covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.8.59final 75 · over by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MSST +3.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
MSST +3.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kamario Taylor18/26 · 251 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4681st pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
LaNorris Sellers25/40 · 282 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0746th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi Stateoffense | Played like MSST +15.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 45.0%▼5.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▼3.4 | 39th |
| 83rd | +0.33▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.22 | 17th |
| 86th | +0.51▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.34 | 14th |
| 64th | +0.14▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.13 | 36th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| South Carolinaoffense | defenseMississippi State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.0%▼10.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.0%▲4.0 | 63rd |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.12 | 62nd |
| 51st | +0.07▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.09 | 49th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.09 | 76th |
| 16th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲2.0 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi StateMSST | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3892nd | Own 2849th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts92nd | +3.7 pts100th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6059th | 7996th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +12.681st | −12.619th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | +1.5 pts99th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MSST +5.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.4, kicking −1.3, 4th downs −1.0, penalty first downs +1.5. | +5.273rd | −5.227th |
Season so far
Mississippi State4–1 · 23rd-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKWat South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5South Carolina3–3 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
Lvs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3Lat Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is