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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs TENN · Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

South Carolina

3–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+10.2
Rank
25
Résumé
63
Projected wins
5.8▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Kent StateKENTSC −26.9SC −36.5W 57–088KENT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12TowsonTowsonSC −41.9SC −44.5W 45–969
Sat, Sep 199/19Mississippi StateMSSTSC −3.5SC −3.5L 34–4128MSST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at AlabamaALASC +14.8SC +12.0L 18–4928ALA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3KentuckyUKSC −0.5SC −2.5L 34–3559UK · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at FloridaFLASC +9.4SC +14.0W 38–1962SC · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24TennesseeTENNSC PK—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at OklahomaOUSC +6.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Texas A&MTA&MSC PK—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ArkansasARKSC −8.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21GeorgiaUGASC +17.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ClemsonCLEMSC −2.4SC +3.0wk 13

Model on SC games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 1–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.83–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)28%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1738th
Success rate43.8%61st
Pass EPA+0.1066th
Rush EPA+0.257th
Explosive rate13.2%59th
Quality-drive rate55.0%52nd
Points per quality drive4.167th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13108th
Success allowed41.9%81st
Pass EPA allowed+0.23120th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0157th
Explosive allowed12.5%89th
Havoc rate10.5%44th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.958th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−1.0 yd87th
Hidden points / game−1.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.43.4 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−2.1%77th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.225th
Schedule played+6.616th
Schedule remaining+9.616th
Full schedule+8.215th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 25th · +10.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmyKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
South Carolinaoff +0.17 38thdef +0.13 allowed · 108th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.