Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3in trend: High totals go under
Kennesaw State
1–4 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
9–42FinalWe had KENN 12 – TENN 44
AP #15Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 97%TENN won
TENN 97%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TENN −35.TENN −35.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −31.7 · KENN covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.61final 51 · under by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KENN +34.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
KENN +34.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rickie Collins22/34 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1352nd pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Faizon Brandon18/26 · 178 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1049th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Played like TENN +21.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.3%▼10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲8.8 | 77th |
| 21st | −0.16▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.06 | 79th |
| 17th | −0.32▼0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.05 | 83rd |
| 46th | +0.01▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.10 | 54th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
| Tennesseeoffense | defenseKennesaw State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 54.5%▲13.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.5%▼7.2 | 14th |
| 68th | +0.19▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.02 | 32nd |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.37 | 54th |
| 86th | +0.32▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.37 | 14th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw StateKENN | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts73rd | +1.7 pts90th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3615th | 5546th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −14.517th | +14.583rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 486th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +9.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.6, kicking +0.5, penalty first downs +3.1. | −9.813th | +9.887th |
Season so far
Kennesaw State1–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5Lat Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12Wvs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameW
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is