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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kennesaw State

1–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−9.0
Rank
108
Résumé
129
Projected wins
4.0▼ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3West GeorgiaWest GeorgiaKENN −30.9KENN −21.5W 47–096
Sat, Sep 129/12Georgia StateGASTKENN −7.2KENN −9.5L 17–3141GAST · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at TennesseeTENNKENN +31.7KENN +34.5L 9–4226KENN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Arkansas StateARSTKENN +9.1KENN +4.5L 14–1739ARST · L
Wed, Oct 710/7Jacksonville StateJXSTKENN +6.2KENN +3.0L 26–2748JXST · L
Wed, Oct 1410/14at Missouri StateMOSTKENN −1.1KENN −3.0MOST +3.5Pass
Thu, Oct 2210/22LibertyLIBKENN +15.6—wk 8
Wed, Oct 2810/28at Middle TennesseeMTSUKENN −1.1—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7DelawareDELKENN +1.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Sam HoustonSHSUKENN −1.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Florida InternationalFIUKENN +3.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Western KentuckyWKUKENN +4.0—wk 13

Model on KENN games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–0 · home 0–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.01–4 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)5%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1065th
Success rate44.7%55th
Pass EPA+0.0679th
Rush EPA+0.1538th
Explosive rate11.5%104th
Quality-drive rate39.6%123rd
Points per quality drive4.633rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12107th
Success allowed45.9%118th
Pass EPA allowed+0.24121st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0167th
Explosive allowed11.8%76th
Havoc rate6.8%120th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.491st
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−3.7 yd121st
Hidden points / game−5.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.91.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected−3.2%87th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.0108th
Schedule played+0.270th
Schedule remaining−8.6118th
Full schedule−5.4107th
Pregame expected wins2.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 108th · −9.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUKENNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kennesaw Stateoff +0.10 65thdef +0.12 allowed · 107th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.