Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
UTSA
5–1 · Ours #61 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–30FinalWe had UTSA 14 – TEX 45
AP #1Texas
4–1 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 97%TEX won
TEX 97%TEX wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −30.TEX −30oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −30.5 · UTSA covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.8.58.5final 36 · under by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TEX −30Lmatched the close
TEX −30Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Owen McCown14/23 · 73 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.573rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Arch Manning17/34 · 164 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2023rd pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAoffense | Played like TEX +17.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 26.8%▼20.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.8%▲9.1 | 90th |
| 8th | −0.33▼0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.19 | 92nd |
| 5th | −0.57▼0.74 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.57▲0.59 | 95th |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.33 | 57th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Texasoffense | defenseUTSA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.2%▲1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.2%▼4.6 | 38th |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.24 | 68th |
| 26th | −0.20▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.44 | 74th |
| 52nd | +0.05▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.10 | 49th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAUTSA | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 3686th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts86th | +2.1 pts95th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4122nd | 7389th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −17.912th | +17.988th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TEX +4.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs +0.8. | −4.729th | +4.771st |
Season so far
UTSA5–1 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5Lat Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6Texas4–1 · 7th-hardest schedule
Wvs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2Wvs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is