Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UTSA
5–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
65
Résumé
23
Projected wins
8.8▲ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
6%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UTSA games: 2–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–2, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.85–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins32%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game40%
Win conference18%
Make the CFP6%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 8% with a win vs Navy, 1% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Georgia State over James Madison — swings a CFP bid between 5% and 8%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1254th
Success rate46.7%45th
Pass EPA+0.0775th
Rush EPA+0.1730th
Explosive rate11.5%102nd
Quality-drive rate50.8%79th
Points per quality drive3.887th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11103rd
Success allowed41.3%74th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1192nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.11106th
Explosive allowed7.9%6th
Havoc rate6.9%114th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.129th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +5.5
Field position margin+2.8 yd45th
Hidden points / game−0.4gave up
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record3–0flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected0.0%55th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.165th
Schedule played−1.083rd
Schedule remaining−4.687th
Full schedule−3.081st
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 65th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UTSAoff +0.12 54thdef +0.11 allowed · 103rd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UTSAoff +0.12 54thdef +0.11 allowed · 103rd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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