Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UTSA

5–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
65
Résumé
23
Projected wins
8.8▲ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
6%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5UT Rio Grande ValleyUT Rio Grande ValleyUTSA −31.0UTSA −28.5W 45–1668
Sat, Sep 129/12at Texas StateTXSTUTSA −1.6UTSA −1.0W 31–2650TXST · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at TexasTEXUTSA +30.5UTSA +30.0L 6–3038TEX · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Colorado StateCSUUTSA −14.6UTSA −13.0W 59–4552UTSA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at RiceRICEUTSA −6.7UTSA −11.5W 16–1448RICE · W
Thu, Oct 810/8South FloridaUSFUTSA −5.0UTSA −7.0W 31–2448USF · Push
Sat, Oct 1710/17NavyNAVYUTSA −7.0UTSA −7.0UTSA −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TulaneTULNUTSA −5.5—wk 8
Thu, Nov 511/5at Florida AtlanticFAUUTSA −2.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at UABUABUTSA −10.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28TulsaTLSAUTSA −8.9—wk 13

Model on UTSA games: 2–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–2, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.85–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins32%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game40%
Win conference18%
Make the CFP6%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1254th
Success rate46.7%45th
Pass EPA+0.0775th
Rush EPA+0.1730th
Explosive rate11.5%102nd
Quality-drive rate50.8%79th
Points per quality drive3.887th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11103rd
Success allowed41.3%74th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1192nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.11106th
Explosive allowed7.9%6th
Havoc rate6.9%114th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.129th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +5.5
Field position margin+2.8 yd45th
Hidden points / game−0.4gave up
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record3–0flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected0.0%55th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.165th
Schedule played−1.083rd
Schedule remaining−4.687th
Full schedule−3.081st
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 65th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUTSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UTSAoff +0.12 54thdef +0.11 allowed · 103rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.