Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Kentucky
5–1 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–21FinalWe had UK 10 – TA&M 40
AP #9Texas A&M
3–3 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TA&M 96%UK won
TA&M 96%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TA&M −15.5.TA&M −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −30 · UK covered by 26.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.0.50final 52 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TA&M −16Lbeat the close by 0.5
TA&M −16Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kenny Minchey14/18 · 252 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7193rd pct
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Marcel Reed26/49 · 236 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1029th pct
- Comp %
- 53.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kentuckyoffense | Played like UK +9.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas A&M | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | 50.0%▲4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼14.4 | 23rd |
| 74th | +0.24▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.35 | 26th |
| 94th | +0.71▲0.88 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.71▼0.84 | 6th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.06 | 61st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Texas A&Moffense | defenseKentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 42.9%▲3.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.9%▲2.1 | 45th |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.06 | 53rd |
| 34th | −0.10▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.13 | 66th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.05 | 27th |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| KentuckyUK | Texas A&MTA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3272nd | Own 2530th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.9 pts25th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5444th | 8498th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.780th | −11.720th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | 0.0 pts41st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UK +4.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.3, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −3.1. | +4.470th | −4.430th |
Season so far
Kentucky5–1 · 2nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9Wat Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5Texas A&M3–3 · 27th-hardest schedule
W
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5W
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5Lvs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5Lat LSU6–35missed +8.5
at LSU6–35missed +8.5W
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5L
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is