Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas A&M
3–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+7.9
Rank
33
Résumé
55
Projected wins
6.0▼ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on TA&M games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 0–2 · home 3–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +7.2 · closer than the market 3 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.03–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.5
Bowl (6+)31%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06123rd
Success rate40.7%99th
Pass EPA−0.14126th
Rush EPA+0.0486th
Explosive rate10.3%115th
Quality-drive rate51.7%73rd
Points per quality drive4.350th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0148th
Success allowed39.7%58th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0270th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0343rd
Explosive allowed16.3%134th
Havoc rate9.6%59th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.910th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+5.3 yd23rd
Hidden points / game+5.7banked
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.0%73rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+7.933rd
Schedule played+4.827th
Schedule remaining+14.82nd
Full schedule+9.39th
Pregame expected wins4.6of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 33rd · +7.9AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Texas A&Moff −0.06 123rddef −0.01 allowed · 48th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Texas A&Moff −0.06 123rddef −0.01 allowed · 48th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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