Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas A&M

3–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+7.9
Rank
33
Résumé
55
Projected wins
6.0▼ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Missouri StateMOSTTA&M −32.1TA&M −41.0W 50–085MOST · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Arizona StateASUTA&M −19.8TA&M −14.5W 48–2044TA&M · W
Sat, Sep 199/19KentuckyUKTA&M −30.0TA&M −16.0L 21–3137TA&M · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at LSULSUTA&M −0.9TA&M +7.5L 6–3516TA&M · L
Sat, Oct 310/3ArkansasARKTA&M −15.2TA&M −14.0W 34–776TA&M · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MissouriMIZTA&M +8.2TA&M +3.5L 6–2737MIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17The CitadelThe CitadelTA&M −48.5TA&M −45.5TA&M −45.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at AlabamaALATA&M +15.3TA&M +2.5wk 8
Sat, Nov 1411/14TennesseeTENNTA&M −1.3TA&M −8.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at OklahomaOUTA&M +4.9TA&M +2.5wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27TexasTEXTA&M +5.4TA&M +2.5wk 13

Model on TA&M games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 0–2 · home 3–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +7.2 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.03–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.5
Bowl (6+)31%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06123rd
Success rate40.7%99th
Pass EPA−0.14126th
Rush EPA+0.0486th
Explosive rate10.3%115th
Quality-drive rate51.7%73rd
Points per quality drive4.350th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0148th
Success allowed39.7%58th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0270th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0343rd
Explosive allowed16.3%134th
Havoc rate9.6%59th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.910th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+5.3 yd23rd
Hidden points / game+5.7banked
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.0%73rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+7.933rd
Schedule played+4.827th
Schedule remaining+14.82nd
Full schedule+9.39th
Pregame expected wins4.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 33rd · +7.9AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTA&Mgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas A&Moff −0.06 123rddef −0.01 allowed · 48th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.