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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at OU · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kentucky

5–1 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+9.7
Rank
28
Résumé
4
Projected wins
7.9▲ 4.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
16%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Youngstown StateYoungstown StateUK −29.4UK −22.5W 45–1363
Sat, Sep 129/12AlabamaALAUK +20.3UK +10.5L 17–4528UK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Texas A&MTA&MUK +30.0UK +16.0W 31–2164TA&M · L
Sat, Sep 269/26South AlabamaUSAUK −14.1UK −20.5W 45–2175USA · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at South CarolinaSCUK +0.5UK +2.5W 35–3442UK · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10LSULSUUK +6.5UK +10.0W 35–3442UK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at OklahomaOUUK +5.7UK +7.0UK +6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24VanderbiltVANUK −9.8—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at TennesseeTENNUK +3.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14FloridaFLAUK −1.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MissouriMIZUK +11.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LouisvilleLOUUK −3.6—wk 13

Model on UK games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +7.2 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.95–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins10%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game4%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP16%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 32% with a win vs Oklahoma, 7% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0878th
Success rate48.2%29th
Pass EPA+0.0197th
Rush EPA+0.1540th
Explosive rate13.9%46th
Quality-drive rate55.4%50th
Points per quality drive4.727th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0899th
Success allowed45.4%114th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0164th
Rush EPA allowed+0.17122nd
Explosive allowed10.2%39th
Havoc rate7.9%100th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.5107th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+2.1 yd53rd
Hidden points / game+4.2banked
Luck, wins+1.43.6 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−3.2%89th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.728th
Schedule played+11.02nd
Schedule remaining+9.118th
Full schedule+10.03rd
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 28th · +9.7AP 15thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUKgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kentuckyoff +0.08 78thdef +0.08 allowed · 99th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.